Meanwhile, active adult communities diverge as occupancy dips
As demand for senior housing continues to accelerate and development remains stalled, occupancy rates are climbing across the United States, limiting availability for older adults. Senior housing occupancy gained 0.4 percentage points to 89.5% in the first quarter of 2026, from 89.1% in the last quarter of 2025, according to the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC) using newly released data from NIC MAP. This is the 19th consecutive quarter of increasing occupancy rates.
Despite growing demand, new development is not keeping pace with the rate of growth of the older adult population, experts say. The number of occupied senior housing units increased by more than 3,000 in the first quarter of 2026—to a total of 637,000—compared to 634,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025. At the same time, new units under construction fell to their lowest level since 2012, and year-over-year inventory growth hit a record low of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2026, suggesting new supply is unlikely to accelerate in the near term.
“We aren’t yet seeing new development pick up, and the bottleneck is largely on the capital side, not from lack of demand,” said Lisa McCracken, NIC’s head of research and analytics. “With elevated costs for labor and materials, and property valuation dynamics, many groups simply aren’t ready to pull the trigger on projects just yet. As a result, investors favor acquiring existing properties over new construction, which puts pressure on the availability of senior housing for the consumer.”
At the current pace of development and demand, NIC analysts believe senior housing occupancy is on track to surpass 90% occupancy well before the end of the year, further tightening availability across many markets.
The increase in occupancy was seen across senior housing types. Independent living occupancy was above 91%, and assisted living occupancy was 87.9%.
NIC MAP tracks occupancy rates in 31 primary markets across the country, and 10 markets had occupancy rates above 90% in the first quarter, compared to seven last quarter. Boston (93.6%), Baltimore (91.8%), and San Francisco (91.6%) had the highest occupancy rates, while Atlanta (86.0%), Miami (86.2%), and Las Vegas (87.0%) had the lowest.
“Senior housing is necessary, not discretionary, but new development has not kept pace with historic demographic demand,” saidArick Morton, CEO of NIC MAP. “Prospective residents and their families should start searching for where they want to age earlier, especially in markets where occupancy is already high.”
Active adult communities see modest occupancy decline
While occupancy across senior housing segments continues to climb, active adult communities experienced a moderate occupancy decline of 0.7 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2025, to 91.2% as of the first quarter of 2026.
Active adult communities are age-restricted, multifamily rental properties that are lifestyle-focused, often offering amenities focused on wellness and community.
Data show just 464 new units were added in the first quarter across 874 active adult rental properties tracked by NIC MAP, totaling nearly 130,000 units across the United States. NIC experts say older adults may be waiting for the single-family housing market to improve before choosing to move to these communities.
“Slower home sales may contribute to the dip in active adult occupancy since many older adults sell their home before moving to an active adult rental community,” said Caroline Clapp, NIC’s senior principal. “Because active adult is a lifestyle choice rather than a decision based on an urgent need, prospective residents may be more likely to delay decisions in periods of economic uncertainty.”
Within the 15 largest active adult rental markets, Los Angeles (97.2%), Virginia Beach (96.2%), and San Diego (95.1%) had the highest occupancy rates in the first quarter, while Phoenix (85.1%), Austin (85.2%), and Kansas City (89.6%) had the lowest. Most of the Sun Belt markets have seen increases in supply, which experts say likely contributes to lower total occupancy rates.
NIC MAP market expansion
NIC MAP’s recent market expansion now provides rate and occupancy data for 214 markets, up from 140, covering approximately 85% of U.S. senior housing supply. This expansion enables consistent analysis across more geographies, including 74 new metros such as Huntsville, Ala., and Reno, Nev.
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